122
THE HOMES OF MONTGOMERY COUNTY
PLANNING ISSUE
The county will need to
accommodate 39,000
additional housing units by
2040 in order to meet
projected demand.
FORMULA for Calculating Future Housing Units
1. 896,741 - 23,491 = 873,250
Total Future Population - Future Group Quarters Population = Total Population in Households.
2. 873,250 ÷ 2.49 = 350,703
Total Population in Households ÷Future Average Household Size = Unadjusted Total Future Housing Units.
3. 350,703 × (1 + 0.04 (4%)) = 364,731
Unadjusted Total Future Housing Units × (1 + Future Vacancy Rate) = Total Future Housing Units
4. 364,731 - 325,735 = 38,996
Total Future Housing Units - Existing Housing Units = New Future Housing Units needed by 2040.
The result of step 4 above is rounded to 39,000 New Housing Units added by 2040.
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1. The 2040 group quarters is based on the share of the population in 2010 that was in group quarters.
2. The average household size for 2040 is based on a logarithmic projection using historic trends.
3. The 2040 housing vacancy rate is based on historic norms.
Existing Housing Totals
Housing Characteristics
Housing Costs and Affordability
Senior Housing
Group Homes and Special
Needs Housing
Jobs-Housing Balance
Future Housing Demand
Future Housing Demand
By 2040, Montgomery County is expected to have 896,000
people, an increase of 96,000 persons. These people, along
with smaller households throughout the county, will
generate demand for approximately 39,000 additional homes
to accommodate them. The forecasts in this section
represent a logical approach to determining overall housing
need based on several variables, including population trends,
changes in household compositions, current and expected
vacancy rates, and housing type preferences. The estimates
of housing types were performed using an analysis of
housing choice made by different household types for new
homes over the last decade. They are based on the
assumption that future household types will make similar
housing choices as their counterparts today.
While the percentage of family households with children in
2040 is expected to remain stable at about a third of all
households, there will be an increase in the percentages of
nonfamily households, including those households
consisting of a single person living alone. These households
overwhelmingly prefer multifamily and attached housing
which will drive these denser housing types to a greater
share of production than detached homes.
FIGURE 90:
Household Composition as a Percentage of All
Households: 1980-2040
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
1980
2010
2040
PROJECTED
Family Households w/
Children Under 18
37.5 %
32.3%
32.2%
Other Family Households
38.8 %
35.6 %
33.8 %
Householder Living Alone
20.4 %
26.3 %
27.3 %
Other Nonfamily Households
3.2 %
5.8 %
6.7 %
HOUSEHOLD TYPE
TOTAL
UNITS
ADDED
SFD
UNITS
ADDED
SFA
UNITS
ADDED
MF
UNITS
ADDED
Family Households w/
Children Under 18
12,150
8,800
2,350
1,000
Other Family Households
8,150
3,100
3,250
1,800
Householder Living Alone
13,550
1,300
4,550
7,700
Other Nonfamily Households
5,150
500
1,550
3,100
Total
39,000
13,700
11,700
13,600
13
FIGURE 91:
Additional Units Forecasted for Year 2040
Source: Montgomery County Planning Commission
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, Montgomery County Planning Commission
